The Computer Staff Salary Survey is published twice a year and dates back to 1968. The most recent data set, published in December 2009, included information on the pay and benefits enjoyed by 59,521 computer staff in 218 participating companies.
Data for the next release will use an "as at" date of 1 April 2010, with the complete data set available online in XpertHR Job Pricing and in a two-volume PDF report in June 2010.
Find out more or call us on 020 8652 2159.
]]>The UK economy's recovery from recession is now underway, but the outlook for growth (and for pay, jobs and unemployment) is anything but certain, says XpertHR benchmarking editor, Michael Carty.
"Uncertainty is the only certainty there is, and knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security."
Mathematician John Allen Paulos' words of wisdom are directly relevant to the situation facing the UK economy at the moment, as well to UK employers and employees dealing with the ongoing fall-out of the recession.
The strength and sustainability of economic recovery are open to question, in turn undermining hopes of a return to stability for UK workers. At the same time, surging inflation could prove problematic for pay-setters as the busiest part of the pay bargaining year unfolds. And conditions appear to be falling into place for the potential resurgence of some unwelcome characteristics of the 1970s, most notably industrial action and stagflation.
"Slow" recovery in prospect?
For now, though, the UK's emergence from recession is ongoing and appears to be slowly gaining in strength. Latest revised estimates (published on Friday 26 February 2010) on economic growth show that gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2009. This represents an increase of 0.2 percentage points on the original estimate of 0.1%, which was published in January 2010.
But it remains to be seen if even this weak level of recovery is sustained. The economy could yet plunge back into recession. Data on GDP growth for the first quarter of 2010 will be published on Friday 23 April 2010. These will be very closely watched by the Government. The Guardian noted in its 20 February 2010 print edition: that "[b]ad news about the economy could fatally damage Labour mid-election campaign."
"[T]he strength of the recovery is highly uncertain", according to the Bank of England's latest quarterly Inflation Report (PDF format, 3.4MB). It says that while estimates for the UK's weak return to economic growth are "more likely than not [to] be revised up a little over time", the confluence of factors influencing growth going ahead "points to a slow recovery in the levels of economic activity." The most likely outcome for GDP is therefore that "a period of gradual expansion is in prospect."
But things could still go either way. Rather than precise GDP forecasts, the report includes a fanchart setting out the full range of potential outcomes, which include a return to negative growth. Crucially, Bank of England governor Mervyn King refused to discount the possibility of a double-dip recession. King stated:
"Of course this forecast (for GDP growth) is consistent with a possibility of another quarter of negative growth just as it is consistent with several quarters of very rapid growth."
Sunday Times economics editor David Smith notes that the fanchart appears to suggest that GDP is most likely to grow by 1.5% in 2010, rising to 3.5% in 2011, a forecast which is "more optimistic than other forecasters".
One less optimistic forecast comes from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), which expects 1.1% GDP growth in 2010 (PDF format, 43.2K), some 0.4 percentage points below Smith's interpretation of the Bank of England's central projection.
And disappointing readings on most key economic indicators during February 2010 suggest that "the worst downturn in a generation is still not over", according to the Guardian's Heather Stewart. Her colleague Nils Pratley goes still further: "[T]he chances of a double-dip recession would seem to have increased substantially.
Inflation spike continues
Inflation has proven volatile over recent months. The Government and the Bank of England expect this volatility to continue. Chancellor Alistair Darling says "the inflation outlook remains subject to some uncertainty" (PDF format, 768.9K). And the Inflation Report finds prospects for inflation to be "unusually uncertain" with "significant risks to the inflation outlook in either direction."
The latest inflation data show ongoing sharp rises, driven by rising oil prices and the return of VAT to 17.5%:
It appears likely that the spike in inflation is temporary, and that both RPI and CPI will fall back later in the year. But this is not guaranteed. Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight told the Guardian that elevated inflation could yet persist, saying that " there is obviously the risk that inflation could be stickier than expected and not fall back as much or as quickly as hoped."
However, the Bank of England Inflation Report expects the most likely scenario for inflation to involve further sharp rises, followed by a sharp fall. This fall would come as "downward pressure from the persistent margin of spare capacity" [unemployment, in other words] reasserts itself as the key influence on inflation.
Unemployment lull continues
Latest data confirm that unemployment remains high, yet the headline unemployment rate continues to surprise by refusing to budge from 7.8% for a third consecutive rolling quarter.
Nonetheless, "the UK jobs market is still on the ropes", according to CIPD chief economist John Philpott. Sustaining the boxing metaphor, he says "[u]nfortunately, there are more punishing rounds ahead." Philpott argues that the labour market will suffer as employers are constrained by "ongoing concerns about productivity, wage costs and inflation alongside the spectre of deep public spending cuts." The CIPD says its research suggests that the number of redundancies in the first quarter of 2010 will be almost double that seen in the final quarter of 2009.
NIESR also expects further sharp growth in unemployment: it is "likely that unemployment has just paused and will revert back to an upward trend this year. [...O]ur forecast shows unemployment peaking at above 9% in 2011."
In contrast, the Bank of England Inflation Report, finds further increases in unemployment possible, but by no means certain. The report remarks on "the resilience of employment" during the recession:
"Employment has fallen in this recession, but by much less than the decline in output. [... P]ay moderation may have helped to limit the extent to which companies have reduced employment and hours worked."
Looking ahead, much hinges on the willingness of UK workers to continue to accept ongoing pay restraint. As the report puts it:
"The outlook for employment will also depend on whether employees attempt to resist further restraint in real take-home pay."
Whole economy pay awards collapse back to zero...
Pay restraint would appear to be firmly embedded for now, according to latest data from IRS for XpertHR.
The start of the new decade saw the IRS headline pay award collapse back to zero over the three months to 31 January 2010. Settlements have collapsed back to the record low recorded over the three month periods to July and August 2009. The headline pay award is therefore 3.7 percentage points below the current rate of RPI.
The range of pay awards has narrowed. The lower quartile pay award remains parked at nil, but the upper quartile has fallen by 0.4 percentage points to 1.6%, after holding firm at 2% for the preceding eight rolling quarters.
...with "little scope" for rapid recovery in pay awards
It is clear that the 2010 pay bargaining year has got off to a weak start. Overall, IRS notes that "settlement levels have slackened markedly as we enter one of the busiest periods of the bargaining year."
Other commentators predict a subdued pay outlook for 2010:
The weak prognosis for pay awards is perhaps surprising given the rapid rises in RPI noted above - usually a sure sign that pay award growth will soon follow suit. But these are not usual times. It remains to be seen if 2010 could mark the year in which the relationship between RPI and pay awards is broken.
The CIPD says the spike in inflation comes at the "worst possible time for pay bargaining". CIPD chief economist Dr John Philpott comments:
"There is a risk that higher inflation will trigger bigger wage rises than the UK's ailing economy can currently afford [.... But] real wages will have to be squeezed if jobs are to be preserved and any further rise in unemployment minimised."
It is consequently possible that pay bargaining could represent a faultline in employment relations during 2010.
Back to the 1970s?
As we approach the end of winter 2010, could we see a return to some of the most testing conditions of the 1970s during the coming decade?
Today marks the 39th anniversary of a day of unofficial industrial action on a grand scale: Monday 1 March 1971 saw an estimated 1.5 million UK workers down tools in mass protest at the Industrial Relations Bill (which would ultimately be implemented in August 1971).
This is just one example of the uneasy state of employment relations which persisted throughout much of the 1970s - largely due to the dire economic conditions that plagued the decade - and peaked with the "winter of discontent" in 1978/1979. The overall economic uncertainty that characterised the 1970s was summed up recently by the Daily Telegraph: "If there were any decade over the past fifty years we'd rather forget, then this would be it."
Blasts from the past: industrial action, "oil crunch" and stagflation in store?
On the face of it, while times are hard for many UK workers, employment relations would seem to be plotting a comparatively smooth course.
This can arguably be attributed to the new "collaborative spirit" which emerged over the course of the 2008/2009 recession, with employers and employees working together to minimise job losses by exploring alternatives such as pay restraint and reduced hours. The UK economy has returned to tentative growth, but the economic situation remains precarious, suggesting that the need for this new collaborative spirit could be with us for some time yet.
But the new decade could well see an end to the "benign employment relations of the long Noughties boom", according to the CIPD. It argues that the aftermath of the recession could herald a sea-change in UK employment relations, bringing widespread unrest to workplaces. The coming months and years will see private sector employees deal with the ongoing impact of wage restraint and job insecurity, while their public sector counterparts face the possibility of swingeing cuts to pay and jobs.
Indeed, with pay awards currently trailing RPI inflation by a significant margin, unions may not tolerate subdued pay awards or pay freezes much longer.
TUC deputy general secretary Frances O'Grady asserted that unions are willing to push for higher pay increases in 2010 at her speech to the TUC pay bargaining conference.
David Cameron, meanwhile, has promised a hardline stance on the unions if the Conservatives are returned to power in the 2010 general election. The final possible date for the election is Thursday 3 June 2010, with the actual date for the election appearing likely to fall in May 2010.
As well as the possibility of a flare-up in employment relations later in the new decade, recent weeks have seen warnings of further potential echoes of the 1970s:
Focus on stagflation risk
Stagflation - rapidly increasing inflation coupled with weak or declining economic growth and rising unemployment - hit the UK economy hard during the 1970s.
Writing in the Financial Times, Money Week editor Merryn Somerset Webb argues that conditions are ripe for stagflation to return in the near future. As she puts it:
"[W]hile it is easy to dismiss the current UK inflation numbers as a nasty blip, the conditions are in place for a huge jump in prices at some point over the next few years. [...] while it is impossible to say when the focus will actually shift, the main conditions needed for the UK to find itself once again staring stagflation in the face are in place."
The confluence of factors that could result in stagflation include: the ongoing rise in public spending; weak sterling; the rapid rise in manufacturers' input prices (which shot up by 6.9% in December 2009); and the current sharp growth in inflation.
She notes that with the stage effectively set for stagflation, all that is needed is a trigger (similar to the sub-prime mortgage crisis that sparked the credit crunch and dipped the world into recession).
But when and if such a trigger might arise is uncertain.
With uncertainty all around, it is more important than ever that employers ensure that their decisions on reward and employment policy are supported by reliable and authoritative data, such as that supplied by XpertHR benchmarking and XpertHR Job Pricing.
]]>| CELRE pay bargaining statistics: March 2010 | |||
| Measure | How calculated | Date | Latest |
| INFLATION | |||
| Retail Prices Index (RPI) | % change over 12 months | Jan 10 |
3.7% |
| Consumer Prices Index (CPI) | % change over 12 months | Jan 10 |
3.5% |
| BASIC PAY SETTLEMENTS | |||
| Whole economy - median | Annual awards over three months | Jan 10 |
0.0% |
| Whole economy - upper quartile | Annual awards over three months | Jan 10 |
1.6% |
| Whole economy - lower quartile | Annual awards over three months | Jan 10 |
0.0% |
| EMPLOYMENT | |||
| Unemployment | ILO measure: jobless and seeking work | Dec 09 |
2.46 million |
| Redundancies | Number of redundancies, 3 months to | Dec 09 |
168,000 |
| Vacancies | Number of vacancies, 3 months to | Jan 10 |
479,000 |
|
Sources: Inflation: Office for National Statistics; Pay settlements: IRS pay databank; Employment: Office for National Statistics. | |||
The 2010 National Management Salary Survey carried out by CELRE and published exclusively as an XpertHR salary survey has now been launched.
The survey shows that resignations have increased in the year to February 2010, despite growing fears over job security. Data collected from 43,312 individuals in 197 organisations also reveals that earning power has dropped dramatically in the past year, with 'take home pay' heavily influenced by where people work and what they do.
The 2010 National Management Salary Survey, published jointly with the Chartered Management Institute (CMI), reveals a labour turnover rate of 13.6%, up from 12.4% in 2009. Resignations stand at 4.7%, compared to 4.5% 12 months ago. In a surprising move, the survey results also imply that employers are failing to persuade staff to stay, with requests for 'internal transfers' as an alternative to leaving dropping to 3.6% from a high of 5.8%, last year.
Asked what lies behind this desire to change jobs, more than half the employers questioned (53.8%) admitted that restructuring and job insecurity caused many of their staff to 'jump ship'. A significant proportion (38.5%) recognised that their 'failure to offer career opportunities and training' contributed to employees leaving. Given widespread recognition that engaged staff are more loyal, it is alarming that 61.5% also admitted that their employees' heads had been turned by head-hunters and recruitment consultants.
Now in its 37th year, the survey goes on to reveal an average salary increase of 2.5% across the UK. Those in the North East and Scotland, with an average 3.2% pay rise, have enjoyed the greatest financial reward during the recession. However, at the bottom of the 'league table for salary movements' are individuals in the South East, who have brought home an average pay rise of just 1.5%. There are also stark differences by seniority level, with junior staff in Northern Ireland enjoying a 4.4% increase, compared to managers in East Anglia securing a 2% rise.
In real terms, the findings show an average salary of £21,876 for junior staff across the UK and £43,119 for their counterparts at team leader level. Outside London (£26,103) the highest earners at junior level are based in Northern Ireland (£22,570). Their take home pay represents a £4,682 difference against the lowest paid junior employees, based in the South East (£17,888).
At the other end of the pay scale senior function heads in the South East are the highest earners (excluding London). With an average salary of £123,769 their pay packet is 39% higher than the lowest equivalent roles in East Anglia (£75,988).
Ruth Spellman, chief executive of the CMI, comments: "A year ago employers were looking at job transfers as a way of halting growth of the dole queue. However, with the latest figures showing that staff are prepared to run the risk of unemployment by jumping ship, questions must be asked about employee engagement levels in organisations up and down the country.
"It is clearly time for business to grow up. We can no longer afford to reward people with pay rise after pay rise especially as all the evidence suggests that money isn't the main motivator anymore. Instead, employers must concentrate on building remuneration packages that incorporate earnings with development opportunities, offer flexible approaches to work and recognition of the need to better engage with staff."
With unemployment figures currently quoted at 2.47 million, an additional unexpected result from this year's survey is that employers are struggling to recruit staff. According to the data, 46% of employers have admitted they cannot fill vacancies, with the majority (77%) citing the lack of specialist skills amongst candidates as a key reason. Almost one quarter (24%) blame the salaries they are able to offer and 15% suggest their location is a factor.
Mark Crail, head of salary surveys and HR benchmarking at XpertHR, says: "It should come as no surprise that pay awards have been much smaller over the past year, than at any time over the last decade. With many companies having frozen salaries in 2009 and inflation on the increase in 2010, employers face mounting pressure to raise pay in the coming months. This is going to present huge challenges for affordability, and with economic recovery still weak and in its early stages, employers need to be able to manage employee expectations about what is realistic."
]]>XpertHR's pay analysts can help by advising on the data available in our extensive range of pay surveys, and producing bespoke reports that exactly match your requirements.
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If your needs are not covered by the list above, talk to us about what you want and if we have the data we can do the job.
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]]>With the new decade well underway, the casual observer could be forgiven for finding the economic outlook distinctly optimistic. But there are still reasons to be cautious, says XpertHR benchmarking editor, Michael Carty.
Much of the UK may have been buried under heavy snow for the opening weeks of the year, but 2010 has nonetheless seen distinct evidence of the green shoots of economic recovery. These include the continued thawing of pay freezes and the UK's belated return to economic growth.
The new year would therefore appear to have got off to a strong start. But, as always, it is best to be reserved in assessing the economic outlook. The UK economy is by no means out of the woods yet: any recovery is likely to be fragile at best; and a strong risk remains of a double-dip recession, or worse.
UK economy emerges from recession at last
The good news is that the UK economy has finally emerged from what has proved to be the longest recession on record. Preliminary official data on gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2009 (published last week, on Tuesday 26 January 2010), showed a rise of 0.1 percentage points (PDF format, 96.6K) (external website). This is the first positive reading since the first quarter of 2008 (when growth stood at 0.7%), and follows six successive quarters of negative GDP growth (not to mention the estimates for the third quarter of 2009 wrong-footing many professional economists by failing to signal an end to the recession when they were published in October). The return to economic growth confirms the end of the recession. Estimates for the third quarter of 2009 remained unchanged, -0.2%.
Economic recovery could prove "lacklustre"
However, further growth is by no means guaranteed. As Bank of England governor Mervyn King stated in a speech the week before the GDP data were released: "The world economy is now coming out of recession. [...] But there is a long period of healing ahead."
The start of the new decade saw no end of commentators lining up to predict key economic trends for the coming years. These reflected varying degrees of optimism.
For example, the Ernst & Young ITEM Club weighed in with a prediction that "the UK faces a difficult decade of adjustment" (PDF format, 278K). It believes the UK needs to make the transition from an economy that is reliant on domestic consumption to one in which growth is driven by exports - if full-scale economic recovery is to be achieved. It expects to see a "lacklustre recovery", with GDP growth averaging only 1% in 2010, before rising to 2.5% in 2011 and 3.2% in 2012.
A more upbeat assessment came from Andrew Sentance, an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), who coined a new phrase to describe the UK's economic prospects: "bounce-backability". Sentance argues that the risk of a double-dip recession has probably passed, but believes recovery is likely to be "fragile and uncertain" with a return to high inflation remaining possible.
But perhaps the most optimistic take on the UK's economic outlook at the start of this new decade came from the Work Foundation's Will Hutton. Writing in the Observer, Hutton says:
"[F]or the sharp economic recovery in prospect, be grateful. [...] Britain is emerging comparatively lightly from what could have been a second Great Depression."
Hutton ascribes this prospective recovery to two key factors: interventionist Government policy; and the widely-touted new spirit of collaboration between employers and their workforces. He writes:
"Companies and workforces have moved heaven and earth to protect jobs. Part of the story is wage freezes, wage cuts and working fewer hours, but top companies have decided that they would rather cut investment in plant than cut their investment in people."
Pay awards remain positive for now...
Pay freezes have undoubtedly played a key role in helping preserve jobs during the recession, but they appear to be in abeyance, for now at least, according to the year's first release of pay awards data from IRS.
Pay awards have rebounded to some extent from the all-time low of zero recorded in July and August 2009. The median basic pay award currently stands at 1.2% in the three months to 31 December 2009, down slightly from 1.3% in November. The headline award has now been worth 1% or more for four successive rolling quarters, but settlements remain weak. The 1.2% headline award is worth less than one-third of its value a year ago (3.7%).
Looking ahead, prospects for pay awards in 2010 are uncertain.
Indeed, it is possible that the current weak resurgence in pay awards could represent only a temporary thawing of the trend towards freezing pay. As IRS pay specialist Rachel Sharp noted on the eve of 2010, pay restraint is likely to spread from the private sector to the public sector this year:
"[P]ay awards remain weak [...] as the [2009/2010] bargaining round gets into full swing in January the outlook for pay settlements remains uncertain. The Government's emphasis on pay restraint in the public sector looks to be matched by a limited ability, or willingness, of employers in the private sector to fund substantial wage increases."
...but pay freezes could return in 2010
A number of other commentators share the view that pay could well continue to take the strain this year. For example, leading economist and former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) external member David Blanchflower highlights the critical role of earnings in mitigating the worst effects of the recession. Writing in the Times, Blanchflower argues:
"[E]arnings have taken a lot of the strain. Nearly half of private sector settlements have been pay freezes and earnings growth has remained well contained. Overtime has been reduced and shift premiums cut. Companies have simply stopped hiring."
In a subsequent article in the Observer, Blanchflower sets out his belief that it's time for UK workers to get used to severe pay restraint:
"The flexibility of the British labour market has meant people have taken cuts in their pay and I think people don't understand that pay is not going to rise for quite a while."
The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) also believes pay freezes are here to stay, reporting that three-fifths of UK employers plan to freeze pay in 2010.
And while severe pay restraint has so far been largely confined to the private sector, public sector pay will also fall victim to spending cuts. Many public sector workers already face low pay increases or pay freezes in 2010. But in an interview with the Sunday Times, Chancellor Alistair Darling indicated that public sector pay would be subject to "restructuring", which could result in pay cuts for some jobs. According to Darling:
"We need to restructure the way people get paid. In both the public and private sector, what was being paid has sometimes lost touch with what someone actually does. And that's not only unfair; it's also grossly inefficient."
The Sunday Times goes on to report that "Darling has ordered a wider study of public pay, by the Senior Salaries Review Body, which will report by the [2010] Budget."
Employers in both the public and private sectors will therefore be paying particularly close attention to all factors surrounding pay decisions this year.
Inflation: Volatile outlook for 2010
Movements in inflation are of course one of the most significant factors influencing pay awards, particularly in the private sector. Inflation is likely to prove volatile in 2010.
Latest official data show that retail prices index (RPI) inflation rose by 2.4% over the 12 months to December 2009, up sharply from 0.3% in November. The current spike in RPI is primarily driven by the sharp rise in fuel prices and the return to the 17.5% rate of VAT. The latter factor could risk a return of stagflation (soaring inflation coupled with weak economic growth), according to CEBR research reported in the Daily Telegraph.
Analysts expect RPI inflation to peak at 3.1% in the second quarter of 2010, according to latest inflation forecasts compiled by IRS. RPI will then fall back to 2.6% in the third quarter, before rising once more in the fourth quarter, to close out 2010 at 2.7%.
It remains to be seen whether pay awards will be characterised by the same volatility that we can expect to see from inflation. But with a return to pay freezes possible, 2010 could yet see RPI recede as a key influence on private sector pay.
Unemployment growth stalls, but could resume later in 2010
The recent path taken by unemployment has been altogether more straightforward, but the pace at which it has risen has proven surprising. A unique feature of the recession was the failure of unemployment to rise as high as might have been expected. This trend has taken a new twist with the latest unemployment data, which appear to show that the rise in unemployment has stalled.
Key data on unemployment include the following:
Will Hutton believes that unemployment has not yet finished on its upward path:
"Unemployment will certainly carry on rising in 2010, but the eventual rise will be around 1.25m; serious, but not as cataclysmic as it could have been."
Yet it remains possible that the current static unemployment growth could be just a lull, and that it could accelerate once more.
The CIPD warns of a possible "sting in the tail of the recession" in the shape of a further rise in redundancies during winter 2009/2010 as employers cut jobs to boost productivity and shrink labour costs. The CIPD consequently believes unemployment could peak at 2.8 million during 2010.
Other commentators fear that peak unemployment could be significantly higher still. Writing in the Guardian, David Blanchflower issued a stark warning on unemployment, and its potential to reverse the UK's fragile economic recovery:
"At the moment unemployment looks like it has stalled, but it's not stalled for long. If a new government got in and started cutting public spending it could rise to four or five million. It would be the economics of lunacy to cut public spending any time soon - certainly 2010 and maybe in 2011. We'd have a double-dip recession, maybe even a triple dip."
However, the prospect of prompt, swingeing cuts to public spending in the immediate wake of the 2010 general election would appear to have receded somewhat. On Sunday 31 January 2010, both Conservative leader David Cameron and shadow chancellor George Osborne indicated that they would make only limited public spending cuts directly after a Conservative election victory.
Time to focus on retention
Trends in unemployment growth will also affect workers' ability to change jobs. A growing body of evidence suggests that employers can expect any unlocking of the labour market - resulting from economic recovery in 2010 - to be accompanied by a mass exodus of their workers. Many top-performing employees - who have stayed put while they weathered the worst of the recession - may start looking for new opportunities when circumstances start to improve.
Research from consultants Pricewaterhouse Coopers LLP (PwC), for example, finds that one in three (33%) employees feels their employer has not valued them during the recession, and that they would consequently leave for another job if it were possible.
Employers therefore need to focus on getting retention exactly right. Michael Rendell of PwC comments:
"Some big employer brands fell down at the end of the 'noughties' and the impact long-term of people decisions taken during the downturn is now being felt. The ways people are recruited, rewarded, retained, incentivised, trained and retired over the next few years will determine the employers of choice for the new decade and beyond."
Why it pays to benchmark employment practice in 2010
The best advice as we enter February 2010 is to hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
Public and private sector employers face significant challenges as the economy returns to faltering growth. Many are likely to be faced with the need to balance economic imperatives for ongoing restraint in spending on pay and other areas with concerns as to how they can hold onto their core workforce.
In this context, benchmarking HR work and employment practice represents an ever more relevant and worthwhile exercise: it can prove invaluable in terms of helping employers control costs when budgets are stretched.
]]>| CELRE pay bargaining statistics: February 2010 | |||
| Measure | How calculated | Date | Latest |
| INFLATION | |||
| Retail Prices Index (RPI) | % change over 12 months | Dec 09 |
2.4% |
| Consumer Prices Index (CPI) | % change over 12 months | Dec 09 |
2.9% |
| BASIC PAY SETTLEMENTS | |||
| Whole economy - median | Annual awards over three months | Dec 09 |
1.2% |
| Whole economy - upper quartile | Annual awards over three months | Dec 09 |
2.0% |
| Whole economy - lower quartile | Annual awards over three months | Dec 09 |
0.0% |
| EMPLOYMENT | |||
| Unemployment | ILO measure: jobless and seeking work | Nov 09 |
2.46 million |
| Redundancies | Number of redundancies, 3 months to | Nov 09 |
182,000 |
| Vacancies | Number of vacancies, 3 months to | Dec 09 |
448,000 |
|
Sources: Inflation: Office for National Statistics; Pay settlements: IRS pay databank; Employment: Office for National Statistics. | |||
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]]>We can begin the year with a certain cautious optimism, writes Mark Crail, head of benchmarking and data services for XpertHR.
Although official figures have yet to reflect the fact, there is a consensus that the technical end to the recession has been reached and the economy is growing once again.
This is good news. Figures from the Office for National Statistics show that unemployment has not risen as far or as fast as in earlier economic downturns and, despite some high-profile departures from the high street, the number of business failures has also been lower than before.
For this we have government economic policies to thank. Investment in public services, quantitative easing to maintain the supply of money to business and specific measures such as the car scrappage scheme have helped to maintain spending and keep the wheels of the economy turning.
But this level of investment has largely been possible thanks to government borrowing, and there is a political consensus that that cannot be maintained forever.
As we head towards a general election in the spring, the economic battleground will centre around the question of which party can best be trusted to cut public spending - and the jobs and services that that implies - without sending the economy into a second downturn.
Looking back 12 months, the first of these CELRE economic commentaries reported that we had ended 2008 with pay settlements on 3.8%, but with a growing number of pay freezes apparently on the cards for 2009.
As the recession gathered pace, the median rate of pay settlements fell sharply, eventually hitting zero while inflation headed into negative territory for the first time in nearly half a century.
Since then, the headline rate of pay settlements has staged a small recovery, with the IRS Pay Databank recording median increases of 1.2% for the last two rolling quarters, to the end of October and November 2009 respectively.
Looking ahead, it appears that pay freezes will be less common in 2010 than in 2009, with some expectation that employers will need to concentrate more on measures to retain good staff as opportunities for them to go elsewhere begin to emerge.
In the public sector, a 1% pay ceiling for staff not covered by long-term pay agreements will apply this year. As part of long-term deals, 1.5 million NHS staff will get 2.5% in April 2010, teachers in England and Wales will get 2.3% in September, and police officers will get 2.55%.
As inflation heads upwards once again and unemployment peaks without having created the massive reserve armies of labour seen in earlier recessions, the pressure on private sector employers to abandon pay freezes will mount.
One in four pay settlements fall due in January each year, and a further four out of ten take place in April. By the beginning of May, more than seven out of ten employers should have completed their 2010 pay reviews.
These will be busy and uncertain months for all those involved in pay setting.
]]>| CELRE pay bargaining statistics: January 2010 | |||
| Measure | How calculated | Date | Latest |
| INFLATION | |||
| Retail Prices Index (RPI) | % change over 12 months | Nov 09 |
0.3% |
| Consumer Prices Index (CPI) | % change over 12 months | Nov 09 |
1.9% |
| BASIC PAY SETTLEMENTS | |||
| Whole economy - median | Annual awards over three months | Nov 09 |
1.2% |
| Whole economy - upper quartile | Annual awards over three months | Oct 09 |
2.0% |
| Whole economy - lower quartile | Annual awards over three months | Oct 09 |
0.0% |
| EMPLOYMENT | |||
| Unemployment | ILO measure: jobless and seeking work | Oct 09 |
2.49 million |
| Redundancies | Number of redundancies, 3 months to | Sep 09 |
205,000 |
| Vacancies | Number of vacancies, 3 months to | Nov 09 |
432,000 |
|
Sources: Inflation: Office for National Statistics; Pay settlements: IRS pay databank; Employment: Office for National Statistics. | |||
But if you are a subscriber to our XpertHR Job Pricing service, you will be able to access your salary survey reports and the Job Pricing service online as normal.
To find the data you need, go to XpertHR Job Pricing and log in. Run pay queries or consult the PDF of the report you require.
If you would like to talk to us about taking part in and subscribing to CELRE salary surveys please contact us in the New Year on 020 8652 4653 or email us now.
]]>Earnings growth for computer staff has slowed as the recession takes its toll, with senior IT managers typically seeing their take-home pay cut this year, according to CELRE salary data for 2009/10 now published exclusively on XpertHR Job Pricing.
Headline increases in basic pay among a matched sample of employees fell from 4.7% in 2008 to 2.2% in 2009, while a steeper drop in bonuses meant that rises in basic pay plus bonus fell during the same time periods from 4.9% to 1.2%.
The figures are drawn from the CELRE Computer Staff Salary Survey for December 2009. The report is based on data supplied by 218 companies on 59,521 employees. Of these, 10,077 were in management roles.
The survey also reveals that just over one in ten computer staff left their jobs in the six months to 1 October 2009, most commonly through resignation (4.4%) and redundancy (3.7%). Attrition was highest at IT director, senior function head and function head levels.
Salary tables in the Computer Staff Salary Survey break down salaries by
The report also includes the latest CEL index, used by companies to uprate prices in ongoing IT contracts. Survey data was collected on 1 October 2009.
By using XpertHR Job Pricing, subscribers can also refine the data by county and town, and assess the impact of key skills and qualifications on IT salaries.
]]>Pay rises for finance and accounts staff have fallen back over the past 12 months, but continue to be relatively buoyant compared with those for other jobs, according to CELRE salary data for 2009/10 now published exclusively on XpertHR Job Pricing.
Headline increases in basic pay fell from 4.7% in 2008 to 2.9% in 2009, while a steeper drop in bonuses meant that rises in basic pay plus bonus fell during the same time periods from 4.3% to 1.3%.
The figures are drawn from the CELRE Salary Survey of Financial Staff. The report is based on data supplied by 92 companies on 7,986 employees. Of these, 1,511 were in management roles.
The report shows that a finance director can now typically expect a basic pay package worth £142,490, while a department head earns £65,672 and an accountant £27,996.
Salary tables in the report break down salaries by:
Survey data was collected at 1 September 2009.
]]>Pay rises for engineers and technicians have fallen to their lowest level for many years, according to CELRE salary data for 2009/10 now published exclusively on XpertHR Job Pricing.
Headline increases in basic pay fell from 5.0% in 2008 to 2.1% in 2009, while a steeper drop in bonuses meant that rises in basic pay plus bonus fell during the same time periods from 4.3% to 1.4%.
The figures are drawn from the CELRE Salary Survey of Engineers and Technicians. The report is based on data supplied by 47 companies on 11,115 employees. Of these, 4,852 were in management roles.
The report shows that an engineering director can now typically expect a basic pay package worth £112,347, while a department head earns £58,472 and a professional engineer £29,542.
Some of the biggest pay rises this year went to production and electrical engineers, while those working in engineering consultancy took home the smallest increases.
Salary tables in the report break down salaries by:
Survey data was collected at 1 September 2009.
]]>Chancellor Alistair Darling will deliver what is arguably the most eagerly anticipated Pre-Budget Report since they were introduced in 1997 at 12.30 pm on Wednesday 9 December 2009. Our colleagues on XpertHr will be providing live coverage of the Pre-Budget Report 2009 speech as it happens, highlighting the proposals of most interest to HR and reward professionals.
Pre-Budget Report 2009: XpertHR resources
Pre-Budget Report 2009: External resources